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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.