A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
